Hes followed by DeSantis, who gets 20% of evangelicals and Scott who gets 7%. Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party. More about Anjali Huynh. But you know, I probably would vote for him again if he is the candidate., More:Iowa or bust: Why the 2024 Iowa caucuses will be key to deciding GOP nominee. Sixty-six percent of respondents said they held favorable opinions of the Florida governor, compared with 65 percent of voters who viewed Mr. Trump favorably, a difference that fell within the polls margin of error. Then, 69% of Iowa Republicans said they would definitely vote for Trump in the 2024 general election 22 percentage points more than say the same today and another 15% said they would probably do so. Just 9% said they would be unlikely to vote for him, with 5% saying they would probably not vote for him and 4% saying they definitely would not vote for him. Selzer said other candidates have the opportunity to gain on Trump and turn people who are actively considering them into firm supporters, but theres a lot of work to be done.. Scott does best with those age 55 and older, with 70% viewing him favorably and 16% viewing him unfavorably. Plenty could shift by Caucus Day on Jan. 15. Growing up, I really just heard of him as not necessarily a political figure but more as a celebrity, she said. Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in a new poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers. For the 2024 Iowa Caucuses, the Des Moines Register is teaming up with NBC News to produce the "gold standard" Iowa Poll. But, one thing that has stayed true: The Des Moines Register and its polling partner, West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., take great care in shaping each Iowa Poll. This years contest is seen as the best chance for Republicans to slow Mr. Trump on his way to the nomination. Scott is viewed favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 17%. Trump, who launched a third White House bid late last year, has seen his favorability numbers in the first-in-the-nation caucus state steadily decline among Republicans since they peaked in September 2021. In 2024, Iowa will no longer be the first state on the primary election calendar for both major parties. North Dakota Gov. Goodenough said he likes that Trump brought balance to the judiciary, both in the Supreme Court and in other federal appointments, and he thought Trumps policies helped stimulate the economy. Ron DeSantis. Debate Week: DeSantis Disses Voters, Trump to Skip All Debates? There are. Among the large pool of Republican presidential candidates, five others maintained more than 2 percent first-choice support. as well as other partner offers and accept our. But for Pence and Haley, the plurality say they feel slightly less intense, rating their feelings as mostly favorable. For Pence, it is 49% and for Haley it is 37%. The scheduled date has been in dispute, as Iowa traditionally is the first state that holds its race first in the . A typical Iowa Poll interview contains many topics. The Des Moines Register/NBC News poll of Iowa underscored the positive effect Mr. Trumps criminal cases have had on his grip over Republicans. If there were some sort of bias in who did or did not participate in the poll, accuracy would not be possible. Trump is viewed "very favorably" by 42% of respondents, the best mark in this category of any of the other 2024 challengers. U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst is viewed favorably by 72%, unfavorably by 24%, and 4% are not sure. He, for example, declined to participate in events that drew other candidates, such as an annual Roast and Ride event hosted by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). If he doesn't, it appears there will be a wide-open race for Iowa GOP support among the party hopefuls seeking to challenge President Joe Biden in 2024. Despite his nontraditional campaigning in the state, 66 percent of caucus-goers who support Trump as their first-choice candidate said in the Iowa poll that their minds are made up and 65 percent of all likely Republican caucus-goers said they dont think the former president has committed serious crimes. DeSantis overall favorability numbers are about on par with Trumps. Phil Marchand, a 42-year-old Sergeant Bluffs resident and poll respondent, said he caucused for Trump ahead of the 2016 election and has been on the Trump train ever since. Id love to see that transfer to the rest of our country.. DeSantis, the candidate in second place, received 16 percent of support. He is viewed unfavorably by 6% of Iowa Republicans, with 20% saying they arent sure. Republican presidential candidates woo Iowa's pivotal evangelicals to pry them away from Trump, Mike Pence is asking Iowans to choose him for president. More:Republican presidential candidates woo Iowa's pivotal evangelicals to pry them away from Trump. New York Knicks sue Toronto Raptors for stealing scouting reports, trade secrets, Wildfire-hit British Columbia blanketed with hazardous smoke pollution, Meta putting profit ahead of safety by blocking wildfire news, says Trudeau, Exclusive: Mexico says won't modify decree on GM corn ahead of USMCA panel, Germany, Switzerland, Austria join call for return to budgetary discipline, Turkey says UN peacekeepers intervention of Turkish Cypriot roadworks unacceptable. Still, Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis remained closely matched on one metric: the Iowa footprint, which adds up for each candidate those who listed that candidate as their first choice, their second choice and those who said they were actively considering that candidate. They include North Dakota Gov. Want the latest Election Central news delivered to your inbox? Trump is expected to address education policy in his first Iowa campaign stop of the 2024 election cycle. The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted Aug. 13-17 of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers, who said that they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 caucuses. The poll was conducted as Trump was hit with his most recent indictment and shows that his lead over DeSantis only increased after his latest charges. But a higher percentage 24% are unsure, indicating they dont know enough about him to say one way or the other. conducted by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom, accused Mr. Trump of a criminal conspiracy. Trumps Iowa footprint, combining his first-choice support, second choice and those actively considering him, also increased 12 percentage points after the Georgia indictment was announced from 55% to 67%. Questions asked only of Republicans have a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. Iowa is where the competition starts, said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the Iowa Poll. The poll of 406 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted Aug. 13-17 in English and by telephone. He has spent less time in the state than his top rivals. Send audience strategist Brian Smitha note at bsmith@registermedia.comwith your question. The latest poll numbers for the 2024 Iowa Republican Caucus. The Iowa Poll, which is celebrating its 80th anniversary this year, will test the feelings of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa as they weigh messages from more than a dozen presidential candidates ahead of the Jan. 15, 2024, caucuses. As nationally known Republicans descended on Iowa ahead of the midterm elections, they insisted they were . Haleys Iowa footprint totals 40%, Ramaswamys is 34% and Pences is 31%. Selzer & Co., an Iowa polling firm rated highly by political insiders, will continue to conduct the poll. More:Donald Trump to make first Iowa trip of 2024 presidential campaign. Mr. Scott and Ms. Haley followed with 53 percent and 40 percent. Reynolds commands the highest numbers, with 81% viewing her favorably (including 50% who view her very favorably), 18% who view her unfavorably and 1% who are not sure. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. He is straightforward and he seems like he is going to get stuff done and he thinks like a businessman.. I feel like thats a really good example, especially for the Republican party.. A national CBS poll on Sunday showed Trump was the preferred candidate for 62% of Republican voters, with DeSantis trailing behind at 16%. From the Iowa caucuses to Election Day on November 5, 2024, here is a look at which states vote when, and where the largest number of delegates are awarded. That fell to 83% in October 2022, and now it is at 80%. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers major. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In DeSantis, Alstrom sees an appealing candidate with a common sense approach to issues that are important to him, such as the economy and national security. We may place more than100,000 individual calls to complete 800 interviews. In 2021, just 4% said they would be unlikely to vote for Trump, with 2% saying they probably would not and 2% saying they definitely would not. He's able to carry on a conversation to get his point across without having to be ignorant or raise his voice, Hefel said, reflecting on an interview she saw Scott give recently. The 2024 presidential nominating calendar is still unsettled for both Democrats and Republicans. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Many questions are asked year after year. Many Iowa Republicans remain committed to Donald Trump, but the former president is seeing his support erode as campaigning begins to heat up ahead of Iowas 2024 presidential caucuses, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows. Trump has commanding lead in Iowa ahead of 2024 Republican caucus - poll caucusgoers, Mr. DeSantis with 20 percent support and Mr. Scott with 9 percent. He handled it very professionally and calmly, and I thought he made very good points.. So, I'm looking for other options. Iowa Poll: Donald Trump holds commanding lead 5 months to caucuses If Trump does not receive the Republican nomination, Marchand said he would likely register as an independent and vote for a third-party candidate. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights. Iowa poll shows GOP divide over Trump remaining party leader - NBC News The 2024 Primary and Caucus Voting Calendar - Election Central Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez all register below 1%. Here's how: Still, Kirschbaum said she currently prefers Trump for the GOP nomination, followed by DeSantis. But it's not all good news for Trump. While former President Donald Trump is leading in Iowa among his Republican opponents in the race for the 2024 GOP nomination, it's not as commanding as his lead nationwide, a new poll found . Poll respondent Steven Goodenough, a 72-year-old Republican from Guthrie Center, said he voted for Trump in 2020 and would consider voting for him again in 2024, but hes interested in hearing from the other candidates already making their way to Iowa. Kendall Kirschbaum, a 21-year-old poll respondent and Republican from Lake Mills,said she thinks Trump was a strong president who successfully tackled key issues while in office, including promoting a strong economy, keeping down inflation, achieving low unemployment rates and strengthening security on the border, while also being good to farmers and small businesses. Former president Donald Trump holds a sizable advantage over his closest rival in the first-in-the-nation state of Iowa, though a majority of likely Republican caucus-goers say they have not made a final decision, according to a poll released Monday. Ron DeSantis of Florida, with 19 percent support. The Iowa Poll was conducted Aug. 13-17, 2023 by telephone. As 2024 GOP Iowa caucus gets underway, Donald Trump is notably - PBS Scott is in second with 15 percent and Ramaswamy with 12 percent. The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. However, with five months to go, some conservative Iowa voters have suggested they may be willing to choose another candidate. Iowa Republicans voted Saturday to hold their first-in-the-nation caucuses on January 15 next year, setting up the earliest start of the presidential nominating process since 2012, when. Former President Donald Trump continues to hold a dominant lead over the rest of the 2024 GOP presidential field in Iowa, 23 percentage points ahead of second-place Florida Gov. Here's how they may collide with the campaign calendar. The NBC News-Des Moines Register-Mediacom poll, released ahead of this weeks first Republican debate, found that 42 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers say Trump is their first pick, followed by Florida Gov. Genevieve Hefel, a 63-year-old Dubuque resident and poll respondent, said she voted for Trump in the 2020 election but has felt her support for the former president wane. Likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers view former President Donald Trump more favorably than ever even after he attacked Gov. Trump and DeSantis are also essentially tied in the poll for the support of Republican caucus-goers who identify as independents. Poll respondent Rick Williams, a 72-year-old Holstein resident and self-identified Republican, said he considers himself a Trump supporter and believes the former president is being unfairly targeted in the series of criminal indictments that have been unveiled this year. Factbox: When is the first Republican primary debate? They also show the intensity of Iowa Republicans feelings about the candidates, she said. In 2020, the Iowa caucuses were held on Feb. 3, just a month before Super Tuesday. The first GOP presidential debate, which Trump plans to skip, is scheduled for Wednesday in Milwaukee. The Iowa Poll, conducted March 5-8, 2023, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 805 Iowans ages 18 or older. The findings, which come as Mr. Trumps rivals have poured significantly more time and money into the state, were consistent with the results of a poll by The New York Times and Siena College released this month. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider Indicates a polling average for this poll type. We'll update this file to continueexplaining our process. 2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus - RealClearPolitics Possible presidential candidates have played coy: Now the 2024 Iowa caucuses really begin. Since then, many of Trumps most loyal followers have turned on the former vice president after he refused to help Trump overturn the results of the 2020 election on Jan. 6, 2021. When it's time to write articles on the poll's findings, we break the results into groupings of questions about a particular topic. Trump later lost to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by just over 3 percentage points. But it was hard to even listen to him speak. Notice any bugs or missing polls? To me, that's a little bit of something to be paying attention to, Selzer said. Nikki Haley is carving a lane in the Iowa caucuses as Donald Trump looms. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited. The survey has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points. Among Trump supporters, however, 66% said their vote was set, while 34% said they could be persuaded to change their minds. Mr. DeSantis had the highest favorability rating among likely Republican caucusgoers of any candidate, including Mr. Trump. That day, some who rioted at the U.S. Capitol erected makeshift gallows and chanted hang Mike Pence as others flooded the halls of Congress in search of the vice president. In most recent primaries, the winner of the Iowa Caucus became one of the top contenders for the nomination - even when they were polling in the single digits just weeks earlier. Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll. who is making his first trip to Iowa Friday, Iowa or bust: Why the 2024 Iowa caucuses will be key to deciding GOP nominee, Ron DeSantis makes his Iowa caucuses debut with stops March 10 in Des Moines, Davenport, his first Iowa campaign stop of the 2024 election cycle, Donald Trump to make first Iowa trip of 2024 presidential campaign, Mike Pence rails in Iowa against 'radical gender ideology' as caucuses start to simmer. She can be reached atmramm@registermedia.com, at (319) 339-7354 or on Twitter at@Michaela_Ramm. A single Iowa Poll may produce 10 to 15 different articles reporting Iowans' views. If you expanded even further to include actively considering responses, Trump's lead shrinks to just three percentage points. If there's a consistent number for former President Donald Trump in our new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa, it's this figure: about two-thirds. Then, 86% viewed him favorably, while just 7% viewed him unfavorably and 7% were not sure. He said he considered other Republican candidates, including DeSantis and Scott, but ultimately decided to caucus again for the former president come January. 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses - Wikipedia Florida Governor Ron Desantis addresses Iowa residents at Sun Valley Barn in Pella, Iowa, U.S. May 31, 2023 . The Iowa Poll uses a list of phone numbers assembled from various public and paid databases. Among those who say they will be attending their first caucus in January, Trump leads the Florida governor 47% to 18%. Because we've seen this happen in the past. voters the large majority of whom said his indictments had strengthened their backing. The Iowa Poll is carefully constructed to ensure that it is accurate. Read the full methodology here. No. Then, 69% of Iowa Republicans said they would definitely vote for Trump in the 2024 general election 22 percentage points more than say the same today and another 15% said they would. Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. More:Ron DeSantis makes his Iowa caucuses debut with stops March 10 in Des Moines, Davenport. The survey suggests a remarkably stable G.O.P. In came phone interviews, by landline and now cellphones. Facebook: PresElectionCentralTwitter: @PresElectNewsYouTube: Election CentralRumble: USPEN, Iowa President Republican Caucus: 2024 Polls. In third place was Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, with 9 percent. New Iowa Poll to reveal views on Trump, DeSantis, Pence, Haley ahead of 2024 caucus. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited. If Republicans are given the option to expand their choices, Trump's lead over DeSantis shrinks to 13 percentage points if first and second choices are included. DNC committee rejects Iowa Democrats' caucuses plan A non-Trump candidate could say, 'I've got to get people to come to the caucus who are outside of the GOP base. So, if a candidate can grow the people who are coming to the caucuses, that is the way in, because Trump is strong with that base.. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. In addition, just 7% of poll respondents say they are considering only one candidate for president. According to the poll, she is viewed favorably by 53% of Iowa Republicans and unfavorably by 8%. What to know about the 2024 Iowa presidential caucuses Trump keeps dominant lead over 2024 GOP candidates, Iowa poll finds . We can't win with just us. Another 5% are not sure. NOW WATCH: Meet the Republicans who are Trump's likely successors, A new Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll. race in the state less than five months before the caucuses. Together with funding partner, Mediacom, the news organizations will conduct multiple polls " to bring Iowans and the nation impactful information about the thinking of likely participants ahead of the 2024 Iowa caucuses," said Carol Hunter, executive editor of the Des Moines Register. At the same time, Trumps unfavorable numbers have climbed, with the percentage of Iowa Republicans viewing him unfavorably more than doubling from 7% in 2021 to 18% now. For the 2024 Iowa Caucuses, the Des Moines Register is teaming up with NBC News to produce the "gold standard" Iowa Poll. We are excited to join forces with NBC News and our longtime partners Selzer & Co. and Mediacom to bring Iowans and the nation impactful information about the thinking of likely participants ahead of the 2024 Iowa caucuses., Carrie Budoff Brown, NBC News senior vice president of politics, said in a statement that its critical to capture the thinking of the electorate at every stage of the cycle., NBC News is committed to covering this election from on the ground and across every state, talking to voters and reporting on the issues that matter most, she said. And among evangelicals, an influential group in Iowa thats often key to a caucus win, Trump leads with 47% who say he is their first choice for president. In fact, he is definitely beatable in the state. Iowa Republicans will hold 2024 caucuses on January 15 - CNN Among those likely caucusgoers, 42% say they plan to support Trump a lead of 23 percentage points over DeSantis, who is at 19%. U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley is viewed favorably by 73%, unfavorably by 22%, and 5% are not sure. If available, the embeds include historical data as well. And theyre substantially higher than those for declared challenger Nikki Haley and likely candidate Mike Pence. He said DeSantis is his top choice for president, followed by Scott. The new Iowa poll offered some glimmers of hope for Mr. Trumps nearer rivals, with likely caucusgoers indicating an openness to Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Scott and Nikki Haley, a former United Nations ambassador and governor of South Carolina. Iowa Democrats intend to forge ahead with a plan for both a mail-in and an in-person 2024 caucus process, despite the possibility of sanctions. If Trump were to become the GOP nominee for president, 74% of Iowa Republicans say they would likely vote for him in the 2024 general election.
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